1. P.J.H. Schoemaker, “Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking,” Sloan Management Review 36, no. 2 (winter 1995): 25-40.
2. P.J.H. Schoemaker and C.A.J.M. van der Heijden, “Integrating Scenarios Into Strategic Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell,” Planning Review 20, no. 3 (May/June 1992): 41-46,
3. For details, see C. Loh and P. Pande, “What Are ETOPS Rules and Why Do They Matter?” Sept. 14, 2023,
4. S.S. Phadnis and I.-L. Darkow, “Scenario Planning as a Strategy Process to Foster Supply Chain Adaptability: Theoretical Framework and Longitudinal Case,” Futures & Foresight Science 3, no. 2 (June 2021): 1-14,
5. S.S. Phadnis, C. Caplice, Y. Sheffi, et al., “Effect of Scenario Planning on Field Experts’ Judgment of Long-Range Investment Decisions,” Strategic Management Journal 36, no. 9 (September 2015): 1401-1411,
6. M. Heffernan, “Willful Blindness: Why We Ignore the Obvious at Our Peril” (Walker, 2011); see also M. Heffernan, “Uncharted: How to Navigate the Future” (Avid Reader Press, 2020).
7. P.J.H. Schoemaker, G.S. Day, and S.A. Snyder, “Integrating Organizational Networks, Weak Signals, Strategic Radars and Scenario Planning,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 80, no. 4 (May 2013): 815-824,
8. S.S. Phadnis and P.J.H. Schoemaker, “Strategic Agility in Supply Chains: A Conceptual Research Review,” Strategic Management Review, forthcoming.
9. S.S. Phadnis and P.J.H. Schoemaker, “Visibility Isn’t Enough: Supply Chains Also Need Vigilance,” Management and Business Review 2, no. 2 (spring 2022): 49-59,
10. J.E. Russo and P.J.H. Schoemaker, “Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time” (Doubleday, 2001).
11. For a fuller treatment, see P.J.H. Schoemaker, “Profiting From Uncertainty” (Free Press, 2002), as well as P.G. Clampitt and R.J. DeKoch, “Embracing Uncertainty: The Essence of Leadership” (Routledge, 2001).
12. G. Klein, “Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions” (MIT Press, 1998); also see R.M. Hogarth, “Educating Intuition” (University of Chicago Press, 2001). Intuition received a popular boost thanks to Malcolm Gladwell’s book “Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking” (Little, Brown, 2005). For a critical review of that book, see R.S. Hogarth and P.J.H. Schoemaker, review of “Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking,” by M. Gladwell, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 18, no. 4 (October 2005): 305-309,
13. G.S. Day, P.J.H. Schoemaker, and S.A. Snyder, “Extended Intelligence Networks: Minding and Mining the Periphery,” ch. 16 in “The Network Challenge: Strategy, Profit and Risk in an Interlinked World,” eds. P.R. Kleindorfer and Y. Wind (Wharton School Publishing, 2009).
14. For specifics, see S.A. Snyder and P.J.H. Schoemaker, “Strategic Radar: Scenario-Based Monitoring and Scanning to Sense and Adapt to External Signals,” ch. 3 in “Building Strategic Concepts for the Intelligence Enterprise” (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2009).
15. Personal communication between Paul Schoemaker and Sir Kevin Tebbit, former permanent secretary of the U.K. Armed Forces; also see P. Bose, “Alexander the Great’s Art of Strategy: The Timeless Lessons of History’s Greatest Empire Builder” (Gotham, 2003).
16. Clampitt and DeKoch, “Embracing Uncertainty.”
17. P.J.H. Schoemaker and G. Day, “Preparing Organizations for Greater Turbulence,” California Management Review 63, no. 4 (August 2021): 66-88,
18. Phadnis and Darkow, “Scenario Planning as a Strategy Process.”
19. R. Karlgaard and G. Gilder, “Talking With Intel’s Andy Grove,” Forbes, Feb. 26, 1996, 63.
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